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Bonus Rollover Math: Why the Free Bet Is Not Free

A $200 bonus with a 10x rollover on -110 odds is not $200. It is a wagering requirement that turns the bonus into a slow leak, and the math is visible before you deposit.

A rollover, also called a playthrough requirement, is the amount you must wager before bonus funds become withdrawable cash. A $200 bonus with a 10x rollover means $2,000 in wagers before a dollar of it can leave the account. At standard -110 odds, each $110 wagered to win $100 carries an expected loss of about $4.55 against a fair price, because the book's margin, the vig, is roughly 4.55 percent on a -110 line. Run $2,000 through that margin and the expected cost is about $91, which leaves roughly $109 of the $200 bonus in expected value, before you count the variance of actually getting there. A 20x rollover on the same bonus demands $4,000 in wagers, costs about $182 in expected vig, and leaves about $18. The bonus is not free money. It is a rebate on volume, and the rollover multiple decides how much of it survives.

The vig is the tax on every rollover dollar

The vig is the part most bettors skip. A -110 line means you risk $110 to win $100, and a fair coin flip priced that way pays you less than the true odds. The book keeps about 4.55 percent of every dollar wagered at -110, win or lose, averaged over time. That percentage is the only number that matters for rollover math, because the rollover is a volume requirement and the vig is a per-dollar tax on volume. Multiply the requirement by the vig and you have the expected cost of clearing the bonus.

Longer odds change the tax. A -200 favorite carries less vig per dollar than a +300 underdog, but the favourite ties up more capital per wager and the underdog swings harder. Neither changes the core fact: the rollover is priced in the vig, and the book set the multiple knowing exactly what it costs. A bonus that looks generous at 5x is often a worse deal than a smaller bonus at 1x, because the multiple, not the headline amount, decides the expected value.

Related reading on this site: Home and Coupon and Promo Abuse by Bots: What It Looks Like cover the neighbouring problems in more depth.

What the fine print actually restricts

Most bonuses restrict what counts toward the rollover. Minimum odds, often -200 or longer, exclude heavy favourites that would clear the requirement cheaply. Some markets do not count at all, and some books cap the contribution of certain bet types. Time limits are the other trap: 7 days, 14 days, or 30 days to clear, after which the bonus and any winnings from it vanish. A 10x rollover in 7 days on a $200 bonus means $2,000 of wagers in a week, which is a volume most recreational bettors never reach, and the book knows it.

The sharpest restriction is the withdrawal lock. Until the rollover clears, the bonus balance and often the deposit itself cannot be withdrawn, and some books void the bonus if you request a withdrawal early. Read the withdrawal rule before the deposit rule, because the deposit is the easy part and the withdrawal is where the bonus either pays or does not.

How to price a bonus before you take it

Do the arithmetic in thirty seconds. Take the bonus amount, multiply by the rollover multiple to get the required volume, multiply that by the vig on the odds you actually bet, usually 4.55 percent at -110, and subtract from the bonus. If the result is positive, the bonus has expected value, and the only remaining question is whether you can clear the volume inside the time limit without changing how you bet. If the result is negative, the bonus costs you money to clear, and declining it is the profitable move.

The second check is behavioural: will clearing the bonus make you bet more, or bet worse, than you otherwise would? A rollover that pushes you into markets you do not understand, or into volume you would not choose, is a cost the arithmetic does not capture. The best bonus is a small one with a low multiple on bets you were going to make anyway. Everything else is the book renting your bankroll for a month and charging you the vig for the privilege.

Frequently asked questions

What is a rollover requirement?

A rollover, or playthrough requirement, is the amount you must wager before bonus funds become withdrawable cash. A $200 bonus with a 10x rollover requires $2,000 in wagers before any of the bonus can be withdrawn.

How much does clearing a bonus actually cost?

Multiply the required wagering volume by the vig on the odds you bet. At -110 odds the vig is about 4.55 percent, so clearing a $200 bonus at 10x costs about $91 in expected vig, leaving roughly $109 of the bonus in expected value.

Do all bets count toward a rollover?

No. Most bonuses set minimum odds, often -200 or longer, exclude some markets entirely, and impose a time limit, commonly 7 to 30 days. Bets outside those rules do not count, and the bonus can expire uncleared.

Can you withdraw a bonus before the rollover clears?

Usually not. Until the rollover clears, the bonus balance and often the deposit itself are locked, and some books void the bonus if you request a withdrawal early.